Our StockTiming Super Accelerator Model
for Longer Term, and Conservative Investors. (Buy/Sell Signals are for Long Positions
Note: These are Long Buy/Sells and NOT our Short Signals.)
This Report tells you how to get higher returns with much lower risk and discusses
Risk and Return Comparisons Using StockTiming Trending Index Signals
Versus a "Buy and Hold Strategy" From December 18, 2003 to December 8th. 2004
as analyzed by Paul Hooper of Marketracker Capital Management, Inc.
The goal for our StockTiming Models is to earn higher profits, while doing so with less risk so that capital preservation is being deployed at the same time. Making more money only makes sense if you get to keep it and don't give it back like so many investors did in 2001 and 2002.
Paul Hooper, President of Marketracker Capital Management Inc. was kind enough to run an analysis using our StockTiming Trending Index Model compared to a "Buy and Hold" strategy for the period between December 18th, 2003 and December 8th. 2004
In this Analysis, Mr. Hooper took the 5 Buy/Sell Signals for our StockTiming Trending Index Model (the STTI Model has since been renamed to the Super Accelerator Model) versus "Buying and Holding" for the SPY, QQQQ, and 6 Mutual Funds offered by ProFunds. The results are presented below.
Before going to his analysis, let me first show you the Signals on an S&P chart for that period below:
The actual dates for the above can be seen in this chart:
The results from Paul Hooper's analysis is presented in the next chart. On the first line, he calculated the profit level for a Buy and Hold strategy. As you can see, the profit levels ranged from 8.7% to 29.1% depending on the investment option chosen.
Next, the Green text shows the result from our StockTiming Trending Index signals. Note that in the second line, "% Greater Profits over Buying and Holding with the STTI Model", the increase in profits over "Buying and Holding" is presented. These increases are due to timing the market and being in a Money Market Fund when the risk levels in the market did not offer an acceptable risk versus reward condition or a high possibility for losses.
By timing the market and being in a Money Market Fund when conditions aren't safe or satisfactory, the higher risk exposure to capital is reduced as seen in the last, bottom line. In the investment options analyzed, the risk levels were at least 28% less than being in a "Buy and Hold" condition. This reduction in risk fosters preservation of capital and keeps one out of the market during dangerous periods where profits are given back to the market.
In his analysis, Mr. Hooper calculated the time investors would have been out of the Market using the StockTiming Trending Index Signals which came to be 39% of the time during that period.
In other words, the above analyses had an investor in the market only 61% of the time and out 39% of the time. This out-of-market period allows one to make other investments during that time or Shorting the market if appropriate. Also, by being in Cash or a Money Market Fund during these kinds of high risk times, investors can avoid market periods where their capital would be under much higher risk of capital losses and severe down swings.
StockTiming.com is not for everyone for the following reason: Some investors get "trading boredom" because they like to be in and out of the market daily or weekly. In that one year period above, there were only 5 trades, and 39% of the time, funds were out of the market. Many people like "high trading activity" in the market, and are looking for the next "hot stock" that makes a million dollars. They only real question is could you have made more ... with less risk, on your own?
So, if preservation of capital is important, along with lower risk and higher possible returns then our service may make sense for you. If you are patient, and don't mind being out of the market when our models show risk/reward levels are poor and risky ... and 4 to 6 trades in a year won't be boring to you, then consider it. For more information, please see this link ... Membership Options ... you can even sign up for a Free Membership.
Reference Information: The Funds and Symbols for the above Analysis ...
The Funds measured where part of the ProFund series and for reference, their symbols and what
they represent are below:
The StockTiming Trending Index Models (STTI Models) are used on the S&P, QQQQ, and the broad market indexes and is available in the Daily Updates and Analysis for paid Subscribers. Our Models are should be considered for investing in Mutual Fund recommendations that we make, ETFs ... Spyders and the QQQQ, and Index Funds.
For more in-depth Statistics about the Super Accelerator Model ...
Be Sure also see this link: MarketTrackerB
"Returns vs. Risk Study" conducted by Paul Hooper of Markettracker.com
For more in depth information on Paul Hooper's analysis, please click this link: Hooper Analysis
Posted on: March 4th. 2005.
NOTES: Standard Deviation is a measure of risk. Higher standard deviation means higher risk. See the Hooper Analysis link above for more about Standard Deviation measurements and risk levels. Total Returns do not reflect commissions and/or transaction fees from Broker Dealers and do reflect being in a Money Market Fund during the periods after a Sell Signal avoiding higher market risk conditions.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
As with any investment, the potential for loss exists as well as the opportunity for profit.